Aoraki/Mt Cook — Avalanche Forecast

A few naturals reported near Mt Sefton on the 12th, nothing else reported, but I'm expecting new events over the next 48hrs If you have observed any recent avalanche activity in the area, please submit a public observation to help keep conditions up to date. Showers turning to rain with heavy falls in the afternoon. Snow lowering to 2200 metres in the evening.Strong north west winds and a freezing level lowering to 2200m. Ice axe and crampons are essential when travelling above the snowline. The potential for serious bodily harm is very real with current underfoot conditions if you go for a slide.

Over 300 mm of rain fell below 3000 m near the Main Divide a week ago. The snowpack was fully saturated by rain. Temperatures began to drop on the afternoon of the first, and the snow level lowered to around 2500 m. Above 2500 m, approximately 20–30 cm of new snow then fell, accompanied by strong northwesterly winds on the 1st. This new snow overlies a firm snowpack from the preceding rain. With the cold clear nights over the last few days, sheltered areas could have had some formation of surface hoar (fragile crystals). Not a concern right now but something to track when buried. Which will be in the next couple of days with 30-60cm inbound in the short term.